National Council of Resistance of Iran has said more than 400 Iranians have been killed and over 20,000 arrested since the breakout of nation-wide protests in Iran. Popular unrests and violence have been sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, three days after she was being detained by ‘morality police’ for claims of violating hijab laws.
Protests Continue
Six weeks on, the thousands of Iranians have protested the clerical institution in over 100 cities. And although this isn’t the first time the Iranian government has faced popular anger, this wave of protests is different in many ways that has made it challenging for the government to contain, and may be outlined as follows:
1. Other social groups join protests:
Workers in Iran’s oil industry said they were going on strike and would stop working on October 29th to protest the government’s crackdown on a wave of nationwide demonstrations. The strike is historically significant, for oil workers played a key role in toppling the Shah regime and the following success of the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran.
The government has said the strike was not linked to nationwide demonstrations, but workers demanding their pay which had been suspended for over two months. But a statement issued by Council for Organizing Oil Contract-Workers’ Protests circulating social media with videos showing workers marching said they have begun their protests in solidarity with other protesters.
Beside disrupting one of the most vital sectors for the Iranian regime, which is controlled the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the workers’ sentiment towards the government is aggravated by their poor social conditions and low pay.
Thousands of doctors, teachers, and university students also have joined the anti-government protests in cities of Tehran, Isfahan, and others, issues statements telling of their grave economic and rights conditions in the country.
The new wave of protests is much bigger and there are no signs of protesters slowing down. Unrests have spread across the country in north-western Kurdish majority cities, south-eastern Baluchistan region, and in Persian majority cities in central Iran.
2. Brutal repression of protests:
Government security forces have cracked down on peaceful protestors with excessive force. More than 400 people had been killed and 20,000 by the security apparatus in 19 regions, mostly centred in Sistan, Baluchistan, Mazandaran, Gilan, Kurdistan, and Tehran, according to Iranian opposition.
The judicial authorities have charged hundreds of detainees with questionable offenses, with offenses ranging across “acting against the country's security,” “propaganda” against the regime and “assaulting security forces”.
Authorities have also shutdown internet service across the country, blocking access to WhatsApp and Instagram, while other services like YouTube and Twitter have been banned for years. Telecommunications Minister Issa Zarepour said the use of VPN, which are private network services used to skirt internet restrictions, would be criminalised.
3. Clashes resume in Sistan and Baluchistan:
Security forces have cracked down on hundreds of protesters who took to the streets of the city of Zahedan, where more than 90 people were killed since September.
Two members of security forces were killed amid clashes earlier this month, state media have reported, saying IRGC raid of the city was in response to an attack which had been claimed by by Jasih al Adl militant group operating in southeast Iran. Yet there seems to be a growing concern by the Iranian regime that separatist militias in Baluchistan might take advantage of the ongoing unrests to launch attacks on police stations.
4. Military escalation:
Attempting to distract the world’s attention to the protests, the Iranian regime has launched several attacks on armed opposition groups. The IRGC have used drones and ballistic missiles to attack militant groups in the Kurdistan Region and has carried military drills in Ardabil and East Azerbaijan.
Iran is sending a warning message by carrying these exercises to neighbouring Azerbaijan about Baku’s intentions for a new transport link connecting Azerbaijan’s exclave of Nakhchivan with the Azerbaijani mainland, a route that Baku calls the “Zangezur corridor”. The route would pass along Armenia’s border with Iran, with uncertain consequences for Armenia-Iran commerce. But Iran is also trying to stop Azerbaijan from forming links with the Azeri minority in the northern region similar to Kurdish minorities and the Kurdish government in Iraq, which might fuel further separationist movements.
In Yemen, the Houthis attack on al-Dhabba oil terminal, located in the town of al-Shihr in Hadhramaut province is seen as an extension to Iran’s efforts averting the world’s attention away from ongoing unrests at home.
Symbolic Support
The West has supported the protesters in several ways compared to previous protests in 2009, 2017, and 2019, which could be outlined as follows:
1. Tightened sanctions on Tehran:
EU and America have introduced a new group of sanctions on Iran for its use of violence against the protesters. The US has sanctioned Iran’s morality police and several high rank officials and military officers since September. Washington also has discussed the possibility of providing internet access to Iranians through Starlink, an internet services company owned by Elon Musk’s SpaceX.
UK and Canada introduced three sanction packages on Iran’s morality police and key leaders in IRGC. EU have sanctioned more than 11 individuals and 4 organisations, including morality police chief, Mohammad Rostami, and other ministers. The effectiveness of these sanctions, however, remain questioned by analysists who believe they won’t soften the regime’s repression of protests.
2. Protests aboard:
The ongoing demonstrations in Iran have inspired wide support around the world, who took to Iranian diplomatic missions and embassies to voice their condemnation of the Iranian government way of handling the protests. Iranian diaspora in the US have marched the streets in many states, demanding the regime to abdicate. Protestors across American cities have carried signs saying, “fear us we, are united”, warning Iranian regime of their unity in demands.
Berlin saw one of the largest marches in support of the Iranian revolution where nearly 80 thousand people participated. Other cities around the world including Australia and Canada saw protests as well.
3. Persecuting Iranian officials:
The EU has submitted a draft resolution to the UN and in particular its Human Rights Council, to initiate an investigation into recent events in Iran. It is unclear, however, whether the resolution could be rectified under the UN as many countries would want to avoid setting a precedent.
We expect unrests in Iran to swell in the coming weeks. A young generation of Iranians have emerged. They do not relate to the ethos of the 1979 Islamic Revolution and have grown tired of the regime’s oppression. As the cleric government continues to ignore Iranians’ demands to improve their living conditions, protests are sure to continue and intensify.
